I've been playing a lot of Game of Thrones over the last few weeks with my group, and Greyjoy has won the last three games in a row, and done well in all the games, no matter who plays them. After a recent game in which I crushed Lannister and went on to win as Greyjoy, the Lannister player complained that he simply couldn't see any way in which he could have held me off. Upon examining the situation closely, I find myself agreeing with him, but we may be overlooking something.
It looks like Greyjoy can always beat Lannister to Riverrun in the first turn, no matter what, and from that point on, Lannister is in a world of trouble. Now, I know that there are other considerations, such as the potential exposure to Stark aggression such a focused deployment would create, but Stark doesn't always go after Greyjoy, especially if they're not a very aggressive player or if Baratheon is menacing their Eastern fleet.
So is it actually possible for Lannister to take Riverrun if Greyjoy is going for it? Oh, and yes, I'm assuming one is switching the King's Court track as per the FAQ.
The way I see it, Lannister's best bet for getting in there is to March(+1) the Knight and Footman from Lannisport into Riverrun, use the Support(+1) in Stoney Sept, and use the ship to raid Ironman Bay (switching to Defense(+2) if Greyjoy goes for a naval attack instead). The March bonus won't actually help, since Lannister will be forced to move in first, and then defend from Greyjoy (who will be chaining their orders). So they'll take it, and then have a Combat Strength of 5 when they try to defend Riverrun.
But Greyjoy can still win, even if their fleet support is raided (so they might as well attack the Golden Sound). All they have to do is March(-1) their Footman in Greywater Watch to Pyke, forcing Lannister to move first, and then March(+0) the Knight and two Footmen to Riverrun. That gives them a Combat Strength of 4, but they have the Sword, and if both players play their 3, it'll be a tie, which will go to Greyjoy, given his higher position on the Fiefdoms.
I just don't see what Lannister can do to prevent this, and they'll probably lose the Golden Sound too, leaving them in an extremely perilous situation heading into turn two. And God help them if a Muster comes up in turn one (which has happened many times). Can anyone point out a fault in our logic? Otherwise, it feels like the only alternative is to nerf Greyjoy a bit, maybe by removing one of his Footmen.